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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.74vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.49+7.80vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+7.54vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+2.02vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.28+5.13vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.20+8.44vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.68+1.85vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.73-1.04vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.32+2.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.66vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.78-0.24vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.73-3.23vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.84vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.20-3.09vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.79-2.82vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.15-9.48vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.22-6.88vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.58-3.93vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin0.31-1.28vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College1.95-8.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.5%1st Place
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9.8College of Charleston2.494.9%1st Place
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10.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.9%1st Place
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6.02Harvard University3.1812.7%1st Place
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10.13Tulane University2.285.1%1st Place
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14.44Connecticut College1.201.6%1st Place
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8.85Roger Williams University2.686.5%1st Place
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6.96Yale University2.738.6%1st Place
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11.33University of Miami2.323.1%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Naval Academy2.605.1%1st Place
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10.76University of Rhode Island2.783.8%1st Place
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8.77Brown University2.736.0%1st Place
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10.16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.7%1st Place
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10.91Boston College2.203.5%1st Place
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12.18Cornell University1.793.2%1st Place
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6.52Stanford University3.1510.7%1st Place
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10.12Tufts University2.225.0%1st Place
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14.07University of Pennsylvania1.581.9%1st Place
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17.72University of Wisconsin0.310.4%1st Place
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11.64Dartmouth College1.953.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 11.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 10.9% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 56.6% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.