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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.79vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+6.97vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+3.11vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.68vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.32+6.33vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.28+4.22vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.95+4.58vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.78+2.80vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.20+1.79vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.68vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-1.24vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.22-1.74vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.73-6.12vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.79-1.79vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.58-0.77vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.20-1.55vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.31+0.76vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.15-11.45vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-8.32vs Predicted
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20Brown University2.73-11.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.6%1st Place
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8.97Roger Williams University2.686.0%1st Place
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6.11Harvard University3.1811.1%1st Place
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9.68St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.3%1st Place
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11.33University of Miami2.323.0%1st Place
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10.22Tulane University2.285.2%1st Place
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11.58Dartmouth College1.952.8%1st Place
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10.8University of Rhode Island2.783.6%1st Place
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10.79Boston College2.203.4%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Naval Academy2.605.9%1st Place
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9.76College of Charleston2.495.5%1st Place
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10.26Tufts University2.223.9%1st Place
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6.88Yale University2.739.4%1st Place
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12.21Cornell University1.793.0%1st Place
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14.23University of Pennsylvania1.581.5%1st Place
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14.45Connecticut College1.201.8%1st Place
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17.76University of Wisconsin0.310.5%1st Place
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6.55Stanford University3.1511.3%1st Place
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10.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.3%1st Place
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8.62Brown University2.736.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Jack Egan | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 3.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 11.1% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 19.0% | 12.2% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 56.7% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.