Race 1A

philly-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
William Gallagher 12.0% 9.8% 14.9% 13.0% 13.5% 12.6% 11.0% 6.8% 3.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ava Esquier 16.0% 22.1% 13.9% 16.6% 12.0% 9.5% 5.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joseph LaForgia 34.0% 24.2% 18.5% 11.0% 7.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Carminati 5.1% 6.6% 6.8% 9.6% 11.4% 12.1% 13.9% 13.8% 10.9% 6.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Mraz 14.5% 15.5% 16.9% 15.3% 13.7% 10.5% 6.5% 4.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Chisari 3.4% 4.7% 5.9% 8.0% 9.1% 11.4% 13.7% 15.2% 11.7% 10.7% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Townsend Morey 3.2% 3.6% 4.4% 5.6% 6.0% 10.1% 10.9% 13.3% 16.8% 14.1% 7.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Haley Clemson 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.8% 2.7% 4.1% 5.8% 9.0% 11.2% 19.0% 19.0% 12.5% 7.0% 2.2% 0.4%
Eric Heilshorn 1.9% 3.2% 4.5% 4.5% 7.5% 10.9% 12.1% 12.9% 17.0% 14.0% 7.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Morgan Kelly 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 5.4% 8.0% 17.3% 19.1% 18.4% 16.0% 6.4%
Max Gillette 7.3% 7.7% 10.0% 11.4% 12.9% 11.0% 12.8% 11.0% 8.4% 4.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Henry Jensen 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 4.0% 7.8% 14.9% 20.5% 21.2% 14.8% 7.9%
Alexa Carles 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 2.5% 5.8% 9.0% 12.6% 22.7% 42.5%
Sophia Rosahl 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.6% 2.6% 4.1% 8.8% 13.3% 18.3% 22.9% 25.5%
Julia Baginski 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 2.5% 3.4% 6.0% 10.0% 15.5% 20.0% 20.9% 17.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.