Race 3A

philly-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Joseph LaForgia 35.7% 23.2% 17.4% 11.5% 7.2% 2.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ava Esquier 18.3% 18.5% 17.6% 16.7% 11.5% 7.2% 5.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Carminati 5.8% 6.9% 8.5% 7.6% 10.1% 12.7% 14.3% 12.1% 12.3% 6.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Max Gillette 5.6% 8.8% 10.7% 11.1% 13.0% 14.5% 12.8% 10.9% 7.4% 3.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Mraz 12.8% 17.0% 17.8% 14.1% 14.9% 10.2% 6.9% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William Gallagher 9.0% 11.4% 12.9% 14.3% 15.0% 13.3% 9.1% 9.2% 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Haley Clemson 1.2% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% 3.8% 5.8% 6.2% 8.1% 12.2% 21.8% 21.2% 9.3% 3.8% 0.4%
Morgan Kelly 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8% 3.4% 6.6% 11.0% 18.8% 24.5% 18.5% 9.0%
Eric Heilshorn 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 6.2% 6.8% 8.3% 11.5% 17.3% 15.8% 15.0% 6.9% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Townsend Morey 2.4% 3.9% 3.6% 6.2% 5.2% 11.0% 13.0% 12.8% 16.8% 15.1% 7.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Nick Chisari 4.2% 4.3% 5.1% 8.8% 9.1% 10.5% 15.1% 13.6% 14.1% 9.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sophia Rosahl 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 2.7% 4.5% 11.4% 19.8% 28.1% 29.1%
Julia Baginski 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.4% 2.1% 3.2% 6.8% 16.6% 23.4% 23.8% 19.6%
Alexa Carles 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 1.9% 3.2% 8.8% 16.3% 24.4% 41.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.