Race 4A

philly-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Joseph LaForgia 36.3% 24.9% 16.2% 11.5% 6.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William Gallagher 11.1% 13.9% 14.5% 15.8% 14.6% 12.6% 9.8% 4.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Mraz 16.0% 18.7% 16.8% 16.4% 13.2% 10.5% 4.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ava Esquier 16.7% 19.9% 18.8% 16.3% 11.7% 8.3% 5.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Chisari 3.3% 4.0% 8.1% 7.7% 10.1% 15.1% 13.5% 13.8% 12.7% 7.7% 2.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Jack Carminati 5.7% 4.9% 8.1% 11.3% 13.3% 12.1% 15.5% 12.4% 8.9% 5.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Eric Heilshorn 3.2% 4.9% 5.0% 6.6% 9.4% 11.0% 13.2% 14.6% 14.0% 12.3% 4.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Haley Clemson 1.4% 1.6% 2.8% 3.1% 4.1% 6.5% 5.9% 10.2% 13.9% 19.2% 17.6% 9.9% 3.1% 0.7%
Townsend Morey 3.0% 3.5% 5.1% 5.7% 8.6% 9.5% 14.2% 17.0% 14.5% 10.7% 5.4% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Sophia Rosahl 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 1.9% 1.2% 5.4% 12.1% 18.3% 27.2% 29.5%
Jameson Parker 1.6% 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 5.3% 7.6% 9.6% 12.9% 18.1% 16.3% 12.2% 6.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Alexa Carles 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 1.5% 3.1% 7.8% 14.8% 24.3% 43.9%
Morgan Kelly 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.7% 3.3% 3.7% 6.3% 10.1% 22.6% 23.4% 15.8% 8.8%
Julia Baginski 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 2.3% 5.1% 8.0% 13.5% 21.5% 27.4% 17.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.