Race 5A

philly-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Ava Esquier 18.0% 20.3% 16.5% 16.7% 11.9% 8.3% 4.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joseph LaForgia 36.2% 26.1% 17.7% 11.8% 4.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Chisari 4.8% 4.5% 8.2% 8.4% 12.0% 11.4% 14.7% 13.3% 11.8% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Jack Carminati 4.6% 5.5% 10.0% 10.2% 12.8% 15.1% 14.5% 11.8% 8.9% 4.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Jameson Parker 1.4% 1.9% 2.9% 3.5% 5.9% 8.5% 8.7% 14.3% 14.2% 18.1% 11.3% 6.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Townsend Morey 2.7% 3.0% 4.4% 6.9% 7.3% 12.0% 14.8% 13.3% 15.6% 9.2% 8.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Connor Mraz 16.7% 18.4% 18.0% 15.7% 14.1% 8.3% 5.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William Gallagher 10.5% 12.8% 14.1% 15.9% 14.4% 12.4% 8.3% 7.3% 2.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Haley Clemson 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 1.8% 4.9% 4.2% 6.9% 10.1% 15.0% 19.4% 16.2% 10.3% 4.9% 1.0%
Sophia Rosahl 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 4.1% 10.3% 15.9% 24.4% 36.9%
Eric Heilshorn 2.4% 4.1% 4.2% 6.7% 8.8% 11.7% 13.2% 13.9% 14.7% 11.5% 5.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
River Dixon 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.2% 6.9% 12.6% 18.6% 23.8% 27.4%
Julia Baginski 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 2.5% 4.5% 7.2% 13.2% 18.1% 25.0% 24.5%
Morgan Kelly 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 3.0% 2.7% 4.4% 5.7% 10.5% 18.1% 23.8% 18.5% 9.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.