Race 1B

philly-fleet-race

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Amanda Majernik 26.8% 22.6% 22.0% 13.3% 9.2% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Gavula 27.4% 25.9% 17.5% 16.7% 7.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Sharpless 23.9% 21.6% 23.2% 15.9% 9.2% 4.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carlyn Blauvelt 5.7% 8.8% 10.9% 15.0% 17.2% 16.8% 12.0% 7.2% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Ward 7.6% 9.9% 11.3% 15.8% 19.5% 15.4% 10.3% 5.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Resio 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 4.2% 5.4% 7.9% 12.5% 13.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.6% 7.3% 4.1% 2.1% 0.3%
Alex Wiggins 2.8% 2.8% 3.8% 5.3% 8.7% 11.5% 16.3% 13.2% 11.5% 10.3% 6.2% 4.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Robert Chapman 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 6.4% 9.7% 15.2% 30.1% 20.1%
Bronson Gallagher 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% 9.8% 11.1% 13.9% 13.9% 13.0% 10.6% 2.3%
Stephen Young 0.8% 0.8% 2.1% 2.5% 4.6% 5.9% 9.5% 10.5% 12.3% 11.7% 12.8% 11.0% 8.7% 5.9% 0.9%
Gil Hankinson 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 0.9% 3.2% 3.4% 4.2% 5.5% 8.1% 9.1% 12.7% 18.2% 21.1% 10.3%
Ryan Flanagan 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 3.4% 6.3% 7.3% 10.0% 11.4% 12.9% 11.5% 13.1% 12.3% 5.6% 1.2%
Pearce Bragaw 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 3.4% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% 10.8% 12.5% 12.8% 12.7% 9.7% 7.1% 2.8% 0.3%
Charlie Flynn 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 4.7% 6.8% 7.2% 9.7% 10.5% 11.6% 11.0% 14.0% 12.5% 5.5% 1.8%
Andrew Cater 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.8% 3.8% 6.0% 15.8% 62.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.