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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.21+2.55vs Predicted
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2William and Mary0.37+10.31vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+3.04vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.69+4.13vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+2.60vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.62-0.71vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-0.34vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.77+3.02vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.89-1.41vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.49-4.58vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.59+0.77vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.33-2.66vs Predicted
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13Catholic University of America-0.38+1.22vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-7.41vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.59-3.23vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.80-4.95vs Predicted
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17American University-1.27-1.15vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland1.00-7.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55George Washington University3.210.2%1st Place
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12.31William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
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6.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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8.13SUNY Maritime College1.690.1%1st Place
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7.6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.0%1st Place
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5.29Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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11.02Hampton University0.770.0%1st Place
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7.59Christopher Newport University1.890.1%1st Place
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5.42U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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11.77Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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9.34Old Dominion University1.330.0%1st Place
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14.22Catholic University of America-0.380.0%1st Place
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6.59Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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11.77Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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11.05Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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15.85American University-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.56University of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall McCraw | 24.7% | 16.5% | 16.1% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chapin | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Paper | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 4.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 11.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dario Abou Rjeili | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 11.3% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Colleen Baumann | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Walters | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 30.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Cala Coffman | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 61.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Bisson | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.