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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.78vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+5.86vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.11+3.47vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.93+0.25vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15+4.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.80-1.35vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.39-1.38vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.31-2.25vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.47+2.46vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47+1.46vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.39-2.39vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-1.41vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.68-2.24vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America-0.35-0.63vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-7.94vs Predicted
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16American University-0.98-1.54vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-3.56-0.20vs Predicted
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18University of Maryland0.18-5.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.78SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
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7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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6.47Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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4.25Georgetown University2.930.2%1st Place
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9.31St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
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4.65U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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5.62George Washington University2.390.1%1st Place
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5.75Christopher Newport University2.310.1%1st Place
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11.46Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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11.46Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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8.61Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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10.76William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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13.37Catholic University of America-0.350.0%1st Place
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7.06Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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14.46American University-0.980.0%1st Place
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16.8Hampton University-3.560.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Maryland0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 22.1% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mais | 16.8% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Cutting | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 12.5% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Janov | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Robertson | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clare Wagner | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 25.0% | 23.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Spiccioli | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 19.8% | 44.9% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Khari Parrish | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 91.3% | 0.0% |
| William McCollum | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 17.9% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.