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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.80+3.29vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.39+3.38vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.93+3.82vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+2.35vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.32vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.63+1.86vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.93-2.93vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+2.12vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-1.11vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15-0.89vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.47+0.16vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47-0.84vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.68-2.55vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland0.18-2.08vs Predicted
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15Catholic University of America-0.35-1.90vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.39-7.58vs Predicted
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17American University-2.14-1.34vs Predicted
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18Hampton University-3.56-1.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29U. S. Naval Academy2.800.2%1st Place
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5.38George Washington University2.390.1%1st Place
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6.82Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.35Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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3.68SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
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7.86Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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4.07Georgetown University2.930.2%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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7.89St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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9.11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
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11.16Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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11.16Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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10.45William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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11.92University of Maryland0.180.0%1st Place
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13.1Catholic University of America-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.42Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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15.66American University-2.140.0%1st Place
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16.71Hampton University-3.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia de Olazarra | 15.3% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Janov | 10.0% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 20.6% | 19.7% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mais | 16.9% | 15.9% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Cutting | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William McCollum | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Clare Wagner | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 33.9% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Robertson | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marty Isaacson | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 63.6% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Khari Parrish | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 15.6% | 80.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.