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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.03+5.61vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.52+3.11vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College1.11+6.68vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.30+1.86vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+1.37vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.89-1.85vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.77+0.59vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.15-1.64vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.84+1.65vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.77+0.92vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.89-3.75vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.76-4.13vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.55-4.38vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.88-3.54vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.08-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.61Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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5.11Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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9.68Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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5.86Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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6.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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4.15Brown University2.890.2%1st Place
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7.59Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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6.36University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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10.65Northeastern University0.840.0%1st Place
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10.92Connecticut College0.770.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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8.62Boston University1.550.1%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.880.0%1st Place
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12.51Boston University0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Maus | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Payton Thompson | 11.2% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Aili Moffet | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 7.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Belda | 17.1% | 16.8% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Rebecca Read | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Morgan TerMaat | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 11.9% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| Grace Gear | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Lulu Russell | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Carina Becker | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Madeline Kaller | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 12.1% |
| Gabriella Schmidt | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 42.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.