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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.89+3.14vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+4.06vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.77+4.44vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.03+2.67vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+2.73vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.11+3.77vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.88+3.36vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.30-2.14vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.15-2.72vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.67+1.17vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.55-2.60vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.89-4.57vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.77-2.00vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.08-1.50vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.52-9.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14Brown University2.890.2%1st Place
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6.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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7.44Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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6.67Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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7.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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9.77Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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10.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.880.0%1st Place
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5.86Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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6.28University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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11.17Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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8.4Boston University1.550.0%1st Place
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7.43University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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11.0Connecticut College0.770.0%1st Place
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12.5Boston University0.080.0%1st Place
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5.19Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Belda | 19.7% | 17.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Abbie Carlson | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Ellie Maus | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Julia Wyatt | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.1% |
| Madeline Kaller | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 11.5% |
| Sarah Burn | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Rebecca Read | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ashley Arruda | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 19.1% |
| Carina Becker | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Grace Gear | 5.9% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 17.1% | 16.5% |
| Gabriella Schmidt | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 18.6% | 38.8% |
| Payton Thompson | 12.9% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.