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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+5.39vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.15+4.36vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+4.89vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.03+2.92vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.52+0.48vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.77+5.09vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.89+0.33vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-0.08vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.89-4.77vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.30-3.83vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.84-0.13vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.55-3.22vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.11-2.82vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.77-6.27vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.08-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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6.36University of Rhode Island2.150.1%1st Place
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7.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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6.92Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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5.48Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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11.09Connecticut College0.770.0%1st Place
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7.33University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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4.23Brown University2.890.2%1st Place
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6.17Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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10.87Northeastern University0.840.0%1st Place
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8.78Boston University1.550.0%1st Place
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10.18Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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7.73Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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12.66Boston University0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaila Pfrang | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Rebecca Read | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Julia Wyatt | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Ellie Maus | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Payton Thompson | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 18.1% | 17.2% |
| Grace Gear | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Olivia Belda | 17.8% | 17.0% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Morgan TerMaat | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 15.6% |
| Carina Becker | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 10.4% |
| Abbie Carlson | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Gabriella Schmidt | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 43.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.