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📊 Prediction Accuracy
87.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rochester0.95+0.69vs Predicted
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2Syracuse University-0.55+1.25vs Predicted
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3Mercyhurst University-2.33+2.54vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-0.87vs Predicted
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5University of Pittsburgh-0.45-1.82vs Predicted
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6Penn State University-2.41-0.34vs Predicted
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8Indiana University of Pennsylvania-2.76-1.90vs Predicted
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9Penn State Behrend-4.23-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.69University of Rochester0.950.6%1st Place
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3.25Syracuse University-0.550.1%1st Place
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5.54Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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3.13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.1%1st Place
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3.18University of Pittsburgh-0.450.1%1st Place
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5.66Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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6.1Indiana University of Pennsylvania-2.760.0%1st Place
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7.46Penn State Behrend-4.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McKinney | 55.5% | 26.8% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 12.0% | 19.4% | 25.8% | 23.9% | 13.3% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Robert Schneider | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 21.5% | 28.2% | 22.9% | 6.9% |
| Lauren Manney | 13.2% | 22.2% | 24.4% | 24.3% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 13.4% | 21.6% | 23.0% | 23.9% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 21.8% | 29.1% | 24.4% | 7.2% |
| Nolan Grimes | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 13.5% | 24.5% | 35.7% | 13.2% |
| Nicholas Sova | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 14.6% | 72.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.