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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.27+8.55vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.11+8.22vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.40+6.06vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+1.94vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.44+3.61vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-0.84vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.03+3.34vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.80vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.12-3.03vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.43-1.00vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-3.25vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+2.98vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.16-3.30vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.76vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-3.18vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.63-8.02vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.69-5.21vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.55Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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10.22Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.06Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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8.61University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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5.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.34University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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6.2SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.97University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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9.0Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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14.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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9.7Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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12.24SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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11.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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7.98Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.79SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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14.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Eastman | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Sebby Turner | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ava Esquier | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Hector Guzman | 14.4% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.2% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 10.1% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Modin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 36.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 8.6% |
| Thomas Green | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Hunter Kahler | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Connor Murphy | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 20.0% | 30.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.