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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.62vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.03+7.44vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.11+6.23vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.16+5.08vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.12+0.49vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+2.13vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+6.78vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.44-0.15vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.69+1.94vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-4.58vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+0.09vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.27-3.37vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.40-4.76vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.63-6.65vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-8.04vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-1.98vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.44-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.44University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.23Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.08Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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5.49University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.13Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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13.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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7.85University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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10.94SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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8.63Cornell University2.270.1%1st Place
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8.24Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.35Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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14.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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11.71SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Sebby Turner | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 12.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 20.9% | 29.4% |
| Ava Esquier | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Tucker Hersam | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Connor Murphy | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 34.8% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.