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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.44+11.67vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.11+8.20vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+3.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+7.65vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.10vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.63vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.12-0.91vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.16+1.74vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.44-0.39vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.60vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.27-1.46vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.41vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.63-5.24vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+0.51vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.40-6.23vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.69-4.22vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.43-8.13vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.67SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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10.2Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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6.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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5.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.2%1st Place
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7.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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6.09University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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9.74Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.61University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.54Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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6.59SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.76Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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14.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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8.77Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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11.78SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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8.87Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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14.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Molesky | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 12.7% |
| Sebby Turner | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Jake Vickers | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% |
| Hector Guzman | 15.6% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.8% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 30.7% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 6.8% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Connor Murphy | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 18.1% | 32.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.