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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.12+5.35vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71+11.97vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.40+4.75vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.19vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+2.71vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.44+5.47vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.03+2.23vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+5.74vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+2.04vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.44-2.20vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.63-3.71vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-7.08vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.11-4.34vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.16-5.16vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-8.33vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.69-5.26vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.27-8.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.35University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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6.42SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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14.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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8.75Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.2%1st Place
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8.71Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.47SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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14.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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8.8University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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8.29Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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9.66Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.84Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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7.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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11.74SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Murphy | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 18.2% | 36.1% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 15.4% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Patrick Modin | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 19.2% | 30.8% |
| Thomas Green | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 6.9% |
| Ava Esquier | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.