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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.12+5.25vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.16+8.08vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+3.18vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.69+7.48vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.63+2.88vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.34vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+0.62vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.27+1.31vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.03+1.29vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-4.68vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.44-2.24vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.43-2.92vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-1.34vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.40-5.42vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.11-5.04vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.44-3.31vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-2.07vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-3.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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10.08Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.48SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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7.88Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.34SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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9.31Cornell University2.270.1%1st Place
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10.29University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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5.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.2%1st Place
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8.76University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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9.08Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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8.58Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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9.96Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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12.69SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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14.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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14.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph LaForgia | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 1.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Hector Guzman | 15.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Green | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Sebby Turner | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 11.7% |
| Connor Murphy | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 18.1% | 35.5% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 19.1% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.