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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.34vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.03+8.57vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.50vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.12+2.02vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.27+4.28vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.40+2.84vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+4.85vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.69+3.53vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+5.73vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71+4.98vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-4.83vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.11-1.66vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-5.51vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.77vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.43-6.29vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.44-7.23vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.16-7.05vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.63-10.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.57University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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6.5SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.02University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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9.28Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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8.84Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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11.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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11.53SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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14.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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14.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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6.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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10.34Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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12.23SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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8.71Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.77University of Pennsylvania2.440.0%1st Place
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9.95Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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7.7Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.2% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 11.7% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Green | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 31.0% |
| Connor Murphy | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 35.6% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 8.7% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Ava Esquier | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.