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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.35vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.40+7.13vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.11+7.22vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.63+3.81vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.16+4.71vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.44+2.69vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-0.98vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.69+3.50vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.44+3.59vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.03+0.57vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.12-4.78vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.41vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+1.55vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-2.45vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.71-0.16vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.27-6.57vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.43-8.15vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-10.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.13Fordham University2.400.0%1st Place
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10.22Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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7.81Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.71Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.69University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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6.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.5SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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12.59SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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6.22University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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6.59SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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14.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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14.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.710.0%1st Place
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9.43Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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8.85Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 12.4% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Hersam | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Sebby Turner | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Ava Esquier | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 19.6% | 30.8% |
| Thomas Green | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 6.4% |
| Connor Murphy | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 34.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.