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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.80+5.22vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.51+9.32vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11+5.82vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.39+3.46vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39+6.38vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.39+5.52vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.21-2.23vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.63+2.50vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15+3.44vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.88vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.50-3.77vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.78+1.99vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.62-6.43vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.93-8.55vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.45-3.77vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University1.42-4.52vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.49-9.73vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.11-5.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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11.32Old Dominion University1.510.0%1st Place
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8.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.0%1st Place
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7.46George Washington University2.390.1%1st Place
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11.38George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.52Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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4.77George Washington University3.210.2%1st Place
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10.5Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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12.44St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
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10.88St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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13.99Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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6.57Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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5.45Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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11.23Old Dominion University1.450.0%1st Place
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11.48Georgetown University1.420.0%1st Place
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7.27U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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12.46Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia de Olazarra | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% |
| Jessica Bennett | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Janov | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% |
| Chris Robertson | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| Marshall McCraw | 15.6% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Hunter Cutting | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 27.7% |
| Edward Cook | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mais | 12.5% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Frank Frisinger | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| Alexander Mazzeo | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Gray Benson | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Hodges | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.