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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.21+3.92vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11+6.84vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.93+2.71vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.50+3.07vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.62+1.66vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.39+5.59vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.42+4.45vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.78+5.66vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15+3.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.49-2.57vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.63-0.31vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.45-0.35vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-2.54vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.80-8.14vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.11-2.45vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.39-8.47vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.51-5.85vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.39-6.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92George Washington University3.210.1%1st Place
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8.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.0%1st Place
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5.71Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.66Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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11.59Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.45Georgetown University1.420.0%1st Place
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13.66Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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12.48St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
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7.43U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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10.69Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.65Old Dominion University1.450.0%1st Place
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10.46St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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12.55Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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7.53George Washington University2.390.1%1st Place
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11.15Old Dominion University1.510.0%1st Place
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11.31George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall McCraw | 14.7% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Bennett | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Scott Mais | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Edward Cook | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Chris Robertson | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Alexander Mazzeo | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 25.5% |
| Hunter Cutting | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| Gray Benson | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Brian Fox | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% |
| Frank Frisinger | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.4% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| Ryan Janov | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.