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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.49+6.38vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+8.87vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.50+4.29vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.51+6.92vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.93+0.57vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.39+1.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.80-0.96vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.21-3.36vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.62-2.37vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11-1.06vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.39+0.69vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University1.42-0.19vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15-0.75vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.63-3.69vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.39-3.50vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.78-2.16vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.45-5.57vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.11-5.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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10.87St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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10.92Old Dominion University1.510.0%1st Place
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5.57Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.48George Washington University2.390.1%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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4.64George Washington University3.210.2%1st Place
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6.63Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.1%1st Place
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11.69Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.81Georgetown University1.420.0%1st Place
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12.25St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
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10.31Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.5George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.84Christopher Newport University0.780.0%1st Place
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11.43Old Dominion University1.450.0%1st Place
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12.4Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray Benson | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% |
| Scott Mais | 13.3% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Janov | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Marshall McCraw | 16.1% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Bennett | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Chris Robertson | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Alexander Mazzeo | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% |
| Hunter Cutting | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 12.7% |
| Brian Fox | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 24.9% |
| Frank Frisinger | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Daniel Hodges | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.