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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.50+5.22vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.47vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.34+3.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12+11.13vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.89+3.18vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.87+2.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.29+3.65vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.11-0.67vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+0.61vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.18+1.30vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.17-3.66vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.99+0.15vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-7.84vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.44-4.20vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36-1.07vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.02-4.17vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.53-7.13vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.15-6.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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6.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.340.1%1st Place
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15.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
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8.18University of Pennsylvania1.890.1%1st Place
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8.31Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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10.65SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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7.33University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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9.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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11.3SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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7.34University of Pennsylvania2.170.1%1st Place
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12.15Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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5.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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13.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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11.83SUNY Maritime College1.020.0%1st Place
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9.87Cornell University1.530.0%1st Place
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11.07Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Corsig | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Beckley | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Parsons | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 43.3% |
| Julia Johansson | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Ethan Andersen | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| John Wilcenski | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| William Sesack | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Porter Killian | 7.5% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.7% |
| Michael Munger | 13.4% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| James Ozaki | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 19.6% | 20.1% |
| Finn Rauch | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 6.8% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.