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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.50+5.11vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.17+5.31vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.02+9.00vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.22vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.89+3.17vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.28vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.87+1.36vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+1.52vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.29+1.66vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.34-3.24vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.44-0.78vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.11-4.30vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.18-2.04vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.53-4.58vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36-1.03vs Predicted
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16Fordham University0.99-4.12vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12-1.60vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.15-6.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Pennsylvania2.170.1%1st Place
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12.0SUNY Maritime College1.020.0%1st Place
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5.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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8.17University of Pennsylvania1.890.1%1st Place
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6.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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8.36Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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10.66SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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6.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.340.1%1st Place
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10.22Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.7University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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10.96SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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9.42Cornell University1.530.0%1st Place
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13.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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11.88Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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15.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.05Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Corsig | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Killian | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Finn Rauch | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
| Michael Munger | 13.7% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Johansson | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| John Wilcenski | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Ian Beckley | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| William Sesack | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| James Ozaki | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 7.4% |
| Samuel Parsons | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 17.2% | 44.6% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.