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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.34+5.79vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.17+5.38vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+6.86vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.24vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.09+2.44vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.18+5.11vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.99+4.84vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-1.75vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.44+1.13vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.50-3.78vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.53-1.16vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.87-3.22vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.29-2.47vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36-0.24vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.15-3.78vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12-0.58vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.02-5.02vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.11-10.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.340.1%1st Place
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7.38University of Pennsylvania2.170.1%1st Place
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9.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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5.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.44University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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11.11SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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11.84Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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10.13Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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6.22Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.84Cornell University1.530.0%1st Place
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8.78Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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10.53SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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13.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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11.22Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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15.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.98SUNY Maritime College1.020.0%1st Place
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7.2University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Beckley | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Porter Killian | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Michael Munger | 13.7% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| William Sesack | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 9.1% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 11.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Ethan Andersen | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| John Wilcenski | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
| James Ozaki | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 19.6% | 20.5% |
| Alex Fowkes | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 5.2% |
| Samuel Parsons | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 15.7% | 44.5% |
| Finn Rauch | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 8.0% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.