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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+5.43vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.29+8.92vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.38vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09+3.37vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.11+2.33vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.53+3.66vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.50-1.11vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.49+5.39vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+0.48vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.34-3.27vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99+0.85vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.87-3.34vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.17-5.99vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.18-3.28vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.15-3.94vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12-0.72vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36-2.97vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.44-8.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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10.92SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.37University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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7.33University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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9.66Cornell University1.530.0%1st Place
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5.89Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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13.39SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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9.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.340.1%1st Place
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11.85Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.66Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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7.01University of Pennsylvania2.170.1%1st Place
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10.72SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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11.06Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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15.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
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14.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 2.4% |
| Michael Munger | 12.5% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 4.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 16.3% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Ian Beckley | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Alfano | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 5.8% |
| Ethan Andersen | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Porter Killian | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Sesack | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% |
| Samuel Parsons | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 40.3% |
| James Ozaki | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 17.8% | 21.3% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.