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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.11+6.54vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.15+9.42vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.34+3.68vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.50+1.89vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.09+2.42vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.87+2.35vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36+6.83vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99+3.64vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.18+1.93vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-3.52vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.53-1.31vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-2.11vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.17-6.00vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-8.94vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.29-4.50vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.49-2.40vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12-1.67vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.44-8.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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11.42Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.340.1%1st Place
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5.89Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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8.35Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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13.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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11.64Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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10.93SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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6.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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9.69Cornell University1.530.0%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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7.0University of Pennsylvania2.170.1%1st Place
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5.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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10.5SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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13.6SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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15.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
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9.76Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Majernik | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Alex Fowkes | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| Ian Beckley | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Andersen | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| James Ozaki | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 18.4% | 20.6% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| William Sesack | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Porter Killian | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Munger | 14.8% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| Samuel Parsons | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 42.2% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.