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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.34vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.34+4.64vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.29+7.81vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.50+1.82vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.89+3.10vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+3.44vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.18+3.88vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.87+0.17vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.44+0.93vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-3.56vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.17-3.86vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.11-4.35vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.99-1.39vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.36-0.43vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.53-5.47vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.15-4.85vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.49-3.36vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12-2.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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6.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.340.1%1st Place
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10.81SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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5.82Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.1University of Pennsylvania1.890.1%1st Place
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9.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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10.88SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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9.93Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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6.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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7.14University of Pennsylvania2.170.1%1st Place
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7.65University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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11.61Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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13.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.360.0%1st Place
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9.53Cornell University1.530.0%1st Place
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11.15Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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13.64SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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15.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Munger | 13.5% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Beckley | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John Wilcenski | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Julia Johansson | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| William Sesack | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Porter Killian | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Amanda Majernik | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% |
| James Ozaki | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 17.0% | 19.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Alex Fowkes | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.3% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 17.8% |
| Samuel Parsons | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 39.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.