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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia0.32+2.53vs Predicted
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2William and Mary0.68+1.05vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland0.38+0.39vs Predicted
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4American University-0.98+1.87vs Predicted
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5William and Mary-0.78+0.42vs Predicted
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6Catholic University of America-1.77+1.28vs Predicted
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7St. John's College-1.11-0.76vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech-1.26-1.53vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.15-5.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53University of Virginia0.320.2%1st Place
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3.05William and Mary0.680.2%1st Place
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3.39University of Maryland0.380.2%1st Place
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5.87American University-0.980.1%1st Place
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5.42William and Mary-0.780.1%1st Place
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7.28Catholic University of America-1.770.0%1st Place
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6.24St. John's College-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.47Virginia Tech-1.260.0%1st Place
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3.77Washington College0.150.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Sullivan | 18.3% | 18.0% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Whisner | 22.4% | 23.3% | 18.9% | 15.0% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Michal Tyrlik | 20.8% | 18.2% | 17.0% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| John Spiccioli | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 16.6% | 13.0% |
| Daisy Griffin | 5.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 9.1% |
| Chris Lukas | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 21.3% | 39.2% |
| John Monday | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 18.0% | 21.2% | 15.1% |
| David Fehrle | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 19.2% | 21.7% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 16.6% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 16.4% | 15.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.