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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1William and Mary0.68+1.92vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia0.32+1.63vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland0.38+0.38vs Predicted
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4William and Mary-0.78+1.48vs Predicted
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5Catholic University of America-1.77+2.15vs Predicted
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6American University-0.98-0.07vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-1.26-0.46vs Predicted
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8St. John's College-1.11-1.79vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.15-5.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.92William and Mary0.680.3%1st Place
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3.63University of Virginia0.320.1%1st Place
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3.38University of Maryland0.380.2%1st Place
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5.48William and Mary-0.780.1%1st Place
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7.15Catholic University of America-1.770.0%1st Place
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5.93American University-0.980.1%1st Place
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6.54Virginia Tech-1.260.0%1st Place
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6.21St. John's College-1.110.1%1st Place
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3.75Washington College0.150.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Whisner | 25.5% | 22.8% | 18.1% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Emma Sullivan | 15.0% | 19.0% | 18.3% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Michal Tyrlik | 20.2% | 19.5% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Daisy Griffin | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Chris Lukas | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 39.3% |
| John Spiccioli | 5.3% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 18.6% | 16.7% | 12.6% |
| David Fehrle | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 17.5% | 22.0% | 20.6% |
| John Monday | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 20.4% | 17.0% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 17.0% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.