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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Catholic University of America-0.38+4.10vs Predicted
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2American University-0.98+4.46vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia0.32+0.75vs Predicted
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4University of Maryland0.38-0.50vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech-1.26+1.62vs Predicted
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6St. John's College-1.11+0.53vs Predicted
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7William and Mary-0.78-1.07vs Predicted
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8William and Mary0.68-4.92vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.15-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1Catholic University of America-0.380.1%1st Place
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6.46American University-0.980.0%1st Place
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3.75University of Virginia0.320.2%1st Place
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3.5University of Maryland0.380.2%1st Place
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6.62Virginia Tech-1.260.0%1st Place
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6.53St. John's College-1.110.0%1st Place
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5.93William and Mary-0.780.1%1st Place
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3.08William and Mary0.680.2%1st Place
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4.03Washington College0.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Walters | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 6.8% |
| John Spiccioli | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| Emma Sullivan | 18.0% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Michal Tyrlik | 17.3% | 21.6% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| David Fehrle | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 19.7% | 28.7% |
| John Monday | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 20.6% | 24.4% |
| Daisy Griffin | 6.0% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 18.7% | 17.2% | 14.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 24.3% | 22.5% | 16.9% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 14.4% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.