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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1William and Mary0.68+2.07vs Predicted
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2American University-0.98+4.48vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia0.32+0.74vs Predicted
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4Catholic University of America-0.38+0.94vs Predicted
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5University of Maryland0.38-1.47vs Predicted
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6St. John's College-1.11+0.50vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-1.26-0.17vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.15-3.94vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.78-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07William and Mary0.680.2%1st Place
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6.48American University-0.980.0%1st Place
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3.74University of Virginia0.320.2%1st Place
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4.94Catholic University of America-0.380.1%1st Place
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3.53University of Maryland0.380.2%1st Place
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6.5St. John's College-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.83Virginia Tech-1.260.0%1st Place
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4.06Washington College0.150.1%1st Place
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5.86William and Mary-0.780.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Whisner | 23.7% | 21.3% | 19.9% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| John Spiccioli | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 18.8% | 22.8% |
| Emma Sullivan | 16.6% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Alex Walters | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 6.1% |
| Michal Tyrlik | 19.0% | 20.5% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| John Monday | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 16.0% | 19.7% | 23.1% |
| David Fehrle | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 16.0% | 21.6% | 28.9% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 15.0% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Daisy Griffin | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 14.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.