Race 16A

nicholas-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Nicholas Marwell 18.1% 15.8% 13.7% 12.5% 9.6% 9.0% 6.7% 4.9% 4.2% 2.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Caleb Niles 5.0% 6.6% 7.8% 7.2% 6.6% 7.0% 8.9% 9.7% 10.0% 10.9% 7.7% 7.3% 4.0% 1.3%
Ellie Maus 7.4% 7.8% 6.3% 8.8% 6.7% 11.1% 6.9% 11.0% 9.3% 8.9% 7.0% 6.2% 1.6% 1.0%
Raymond Groble IV 5.6% 7.8% 6.4% 8.6% 8.5% 8.9% 10.6% 8.5% 9.2% 10.1% 7.6% 4.8% 2.5% 0.9%
Jonas Nelle 9.3% 11.2% 11.7% 9.8% 11.6% 8.6% 9.8% 9.5% 7.4% 4.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Noah Simmons 11.9% 10.9% 13.2% 10.5% 10.9% 11.3% 8.5% 6.9% 6.3% 4.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Aidan naughton 15.8% 15.8% 14.3% 10.5% 11.2% 8.6% 8.7% 6.2% 3.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Joshua Stone 4.1% 3.2% 3.7% 4.1% 5.2% 5.5% 4.8% 7.1% 8.3% 10.3% 13.1% 11.1% 11.9% 7.6%
Grace Cannon 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 2.9% 4.0% 4.7% 3.9% 5.1% 7.5% 11.7% 13.5% 13.3% 16.0% 10.1%
Riley Read 7.3% 6.9% 7.3% 9.4% 10.3% 8.7% 10.7% 8.2% 10.5% 8.2% 6.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Ryutaro Sochi 8.0% 7.6% 8.1% 8.8% 10.1% 7.8% 10.2% 9.9% 8.3% 7.7% 5.7% 4.8% 2.5% 0.5%
Corinne Poitras 0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 2.4% 0.7% 2.6% 2.8% 3.7% 4.0% 5.0% 9.0% 12.5% 20.6% 33.4%
John Sisk 1.8% 1.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 3.7% 4.9% 5.9% 8.6% 14.6% 18.8% 29.9%
Zach Zeelander 1.9% 1.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 3.7% 4.9% 5.6% 6.4% 6.6% 10.9% 17.3% 18.9% 14.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.