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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+3.82vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.04+5.30vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+7.95vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.09+2.05vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.02+1.07vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.97+0.99vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.14+1.79vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.99-1.27vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93+1.48vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.22-1.39vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.71+0.30vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy0.15+0.67vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.70-1.81vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University0.01-0.67vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.48-3.37vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College1.13-6.73vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-10.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82Cornell University2.3816.5%1st Place
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7.3U. S. Naval Academy2.046.5%1st Place
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10.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.3%1st Place
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6.05Boston College2.099.9%1st Place
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6.07Tulane University2.028.8%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University1.978.5%1st Place
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8.79Boston University1.144.3%1st Place
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6.73Brown University1.998.6%1st Place
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10.48George Washington University0.934.0%1st Place
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8.61Northeastern University1.225.3%1st Place
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11.3Fordham University0.712.9%1st Place
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12.67Maine Maritime Academy0.152.0%1st Place
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11.19University of Wisconsin0.702.5%1st Place
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13.33North Carolina State University0.011.5%1st Place
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11.63University of Vermont0.482.5%1st Place
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9.27Bowdoin College1.134.7%1st Place
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6.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.778.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 16.5% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 8.8% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Meagher | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Katharine Doble | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 5.5% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% |
| Jane Marvin | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 20.2% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% |
| Lyla Solway | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 15.5% | 27.8% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Rebecca Schill | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.