Race 4B

princeton-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Bryan Lawrence 12.0% 14.1% 15.0% 14.8% 15.2% 12.9% 7.6% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
Liliana Taub 14.6% 13.7% 16.4% 14.7% 12.8% 12.0% 7.3% 6.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Nathan Whisner 34.8% 25.2% 18.9% 9.2% 6.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samantha Mislinski 9.3% 12.3% 10.9% 14.5% 15.8% 12.5% 11.8% 7.5% 3.6% 1.5% 0.3%
Tyler Butler 7.9% 9.1% 10.1% 12.0% 12.1% 12.8% 13.9% 11.4% 7.1% 3.0% 0.6%
John Mecca 2.4% 3.6% 4.6% 4.9% 7.6% 8.4% 11.8% 15.3% 17.0% 15.2% 9.2%
Daniel Dickson 2.9% 3.6% 2.4% 5.0% 4.9% 7.6% 11.2% 13.1% 18.2% 18.7% 12.4%
Mateo Navarro Goldaraz 11.0% 11.2% 13.4% 13.9% 12.7% 12.5% 11.1% 8.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.3%
Damien Hollyday 1.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.3% 3.0% 5.4% 6.4% 12.9% 17.2% 46.9%
Robert Chapman 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 4.3% 3.2% 5.9% 7.1% 10.7% 16.3% 24.9% 21.9%
Sophia Rosahl 2.4% 3.5% 5.0% 4.8% 6.7% 9.1% 11.2% 14.9% 17.2% 17.0% 8.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.