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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.80vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.57+3.51vs Predicted
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3McGill University0.41+6.55vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire1.02+3.53vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.39+1.15vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.74-0.87vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.27+3.05vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.17-1.30vs Predicted
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9Sacred Heart University0.35+0.66vs Predicted
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10Wesleyan University-0.40+2.27vs Predicted
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11Wentworth Institute of Technology0.29-1.05vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.04-4.68vs Predicted
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13Yale University0.18-2.72vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University0.51-4.96vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University-0.22-3.25vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.08-4.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.2%1st Place
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5.51University of Rhode Island1.570.1%1st Place
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9.55McGill University0.410.0%1st Place
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7.53University of New Hampshire1.020.0%1st Place
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6.15Salve Regina University1.390.1%1st Place
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5.13University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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10.05Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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6.7University of Rhode Island1.170.1%1st Place
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9.66Sacred Heart University0.350.0%1st Place
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12.27Wesleyan University-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.95Wentworth Institute of Technology0.290.0%1st Place
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7.32Tufts University1.040.1%1st Place
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10.28Yale University0.180.0%1st Place
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9.04Roger Williams University0.510.0%1st Place
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11.75Fairfield University-0.220.0%1st Place
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11.3Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kickhafer | 22.3% | 17.8% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Palardy | 12.0% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Drezner | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Grace Cannon | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Caroline King | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Peter Schneider | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alec Bodenski | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% |
| Megan Gimple | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Brian Hayes | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| Owen Moore | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 24.6% |
| John Holt | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% |
| Matthew Galbraith | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Liviu Mosnoi | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.3% |
| Wataru Kondo | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Giles Ruck | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 19.4% |
| David Perez | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.