Race 4A

salt-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Caroline King 8.8% 10.5% 10.0% 10.1% 9.8% 10.0% 8.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.1% 4.2% 4.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4%
Megan Gimple 7.9% 8.1% 9.3% 8.1% 7.4% 7.7% 8.4% 9.8% 6.9% 6.9% 4.5% 5.3% 5.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.8%
Grace Cannon 7.3% 6.1% 6.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.8% 9.4% 10.0% 8.1% 6.0% 5.5% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 0.8%
Ryan Palardy 10.5% 10.9% 11.0% 10.5% 10.1% 8.0% 9.9% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Matthew Kickhafer 20.6% 16.1% 16.2% 11.6% 10.0% 8.5% 6.1% 4.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Schneider 11.8% 12.8% 13.3% 11.9% 10.3% 10.9% 7.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Nathan Drezner 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 5.3% 5.1% 5.8% 4.9% 6.6% 6.0% 6.8% 7.7% 8.1% 10.1% 9.7% 6.7% 5.7%
Matthew Galbraith 6.6% 7.7% 6.2% 7.6% 8.8% 8.2% 7.9% 8.8% 8.1% 6.4% 7.3% 6.8% 3.4% 4.0% 1.9% 0.3%
Alec Bodenski 3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.6% 5.3% 5.7% 7.6% 8.0% 7.9% 9.2% 8.1% 9.6% 8.8% 7.4%
John Holt 3.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 5.6% 6.1% 6.9% 7.5% 9.6% 9.9% 8.9% 9.8% 8.2% 6.1%
David Perez 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 3.5% 3.7% 4.9% 4.3% 3.5% 6.7% 7.5% 7.3% 7.6% 12.2% 13.8% 14.9%
Wataru Kondo 4.2% 4.6% 3.5% 5.7% 5.4% 6.4% 6.5% 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 7.6% 7.4% 9.4% 6.5% 8.1% 4.3%
Liviu Mosnoi 2.2% 2.0% 3.1% 5.4% 3.7% 3.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.9% 6.8% 7.8% 8.8% 9.2% 9.2% 9.7% 9.6%
Brian Hayes 3.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.0% 5.4% 6.0% 5.4% 5.7% 7.2% 7.7% 9.1% 8.1% 8.7% 8.4% 7.9% 5.6%
Owen Moore 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 4.1% 3.9% 4.8% 5.8% 7.1% 8.7% 10.5% 15.6% 25.8%
Giles Ruck 1.2% 2.0% 2.5% 1.9% 3.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 5.4% 5.0% 6.6% 7.1% 10.9% 11.1% 14.9% 18.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.