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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.90+3.56vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.28+4.67vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.98+4.90vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.82+1.00vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.09+2.30vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.22+1.16vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.85+1.40vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.57+1.27vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.52+0.83vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.67-1.07vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.37-0.65vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.43-2.01vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.59-3.55vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.99-2.21vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.14-3.91vs Predicted
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16Tufts University0.69-3.26vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.73-4.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56Yale University2.900.2%1st Place
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6.67Yale University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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5.0Yale University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.3Yale University2.090.1%1st Place
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7.16Yale University2.220.1%1st Place
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8.4Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
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9.27Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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9.83Tufts University1.520.0%1st Place
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8.93Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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10.35Connecticut College1.370.0%1st Place
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9.99Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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9.45Yale University1.590.0%1st Place
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11.79Tufts University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.09Tufts University1.140.0%1st Place
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12.74Tufts University0.690.0%1st Place
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12.58Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Marwell | 18.3% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Davies | 8.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Chloe Holder | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Dylan DiMarchi | 14.5% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Tobin | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Catherine "B" Lindsay | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Harris Padegs | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Martin Tipton | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| William O'Leary | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% |
| Petru Neagu | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Elena Gonick | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 15.4% |
| Lera Anders | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% |
| Madeline Simms | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 22.9% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 21.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.