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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.37+6.26vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.06+6.70vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.39+4.37vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.01+4.93vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.84+4.68vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.25+1.87vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+1.75vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.49+3.15vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.61+1.66vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94-0.74vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.28+1.40vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-1.39vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-2.66vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-3.69vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.09-1.87vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.17-3.20vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.75-7.04vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.93-3.99vs Predicted
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19Salve Regina University1.38-3.14vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College2.62-9.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.26College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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8.7Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.37Yale University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.93Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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9.68Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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8.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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11.15Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
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10.66Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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9.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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12.4University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
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10.61University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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10.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.0%1st Place
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10.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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13.13University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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12.8Eckerd College2.170.0%1st Place
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9.96Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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14.01Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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15.86Salve Regina University1.380.0%1st Place
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10.96Dartmouth College2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alie Toppa | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Sam Morrell | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Luke Arnone | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jack DeNatale | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Henry Burnes | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Connor Bayless | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Grant Gridley | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Samuel Merson | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Lewis Cooper | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| David Eastwood | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Stephen Duncan | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 2.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.5% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% |
| Matt Safford | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 16.4% |
| Anthony Root | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 34.2% |
| Noah Simmons | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.