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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+9.32vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.01+6.90vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.62+7.94vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.75+6.16vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.84+4.67vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+4.51vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.49+4.78vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.17+4.68vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+0.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.25-2.17vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.39-3.64vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.06-3.05vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18+0.28vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.61-3.22vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.37-7.60vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-5.99vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.28-4.72vs Predicted
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18Salve Regina University1.38-1.88vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin2.09-5.78vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-11.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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8.9Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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10.94Dartmouth College2.620.0%1st Place
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10.16Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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9.67Harvard University2.840.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
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11.78Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
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12.68Eckerd College2.170.0%1st Place
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9.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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7.36Yale University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.95Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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13.28Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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10.78Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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7.4College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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10.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
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12.28University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
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16.12Salve Regina University1.380.0%1st Place
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13.22University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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8.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Noah Simmons | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| Matt Safford | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Henry Burnes | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| David Eastwood | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Grant Gridley | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% |
| Lewis Cooper | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Connor Bayless | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Luke Arnone | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Morrell | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 10.7% |
| Samuel Merson | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Stephen Duncan | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% |
| Anthony Root | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 36.4% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 11.4% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.