← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University3.39+6.26vs Predicted
-
2Boston College3.01+6.94vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University2.49+8.54vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College2.75+6.22vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+5.27vs Predicted
-
6Boston University3.06+2.81vs Predicted
-
7Eckerd College2.17+6.25vs Predicted
-
8Harvard University2.84+1.51vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+0.19vs Predicted
-
10College of Charleston3.37-2.65vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-0.92vs Predicted
-
12Dartmouth College2.62-0.88vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-2.23vs Predicted
-
14University of Wisconsin2.09-0.76vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Naval Academy3.25-7.09vs Predicted
-
16University of Rhode Island2.28-3.63vs Predicted
-
17Tufts University2.61-6.31vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-9.42vs Predicted
-
19Old Dominion University2.18-6.24vs Predicted
-
20Salve Regina University1.38-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.26Yale University3.390.1%1st Place
-
8.94Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
-
11.54Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
-
10.22Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
-
10.27University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
-
8.81Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
-
13.25Eckerd College2.170.0%1st Place
-
9.51Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
-
9.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
-
7.35College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
-
10.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
-
11.12Dartmouth College2.620.0%1st Place
-
10.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
-
13.24University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
-
7.91U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
-
12.37University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
-
10.69Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
-
8.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
-
12.76Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
-
16.13Salve Regina University1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Arnone | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Grant Gridley | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% |
| Matt Safford | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| David Eastwood | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Sam Morrell | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% |
| Henry Burnes | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Lewis Cooper | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Stephen Duncan | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Noah Simmons | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 11.6% |
| Connor Bayless | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| Anthony Root | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 36.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.