← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Boston University3.06+7.72vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University2.84+7.79vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+6.43vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College2.75+6.18vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.25+2.85vs Predicted
-
6College of Charleston3.37+1.36vs Predicted
-
7Boston College3.01+2.29vs Predicted
-
8Eckerd College2.17+4.71vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College2.62+1.72vs Predicted
-
10Yale University3.39-2.72vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-0.94vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island2.28+0.65vs Predicted
-
13Old Dominion University2.18+0.25vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-3.69vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-6.46vs Predicted
-
16Tufts University2.61-5.19vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-6.82vs Predicted
-
18Roger Williams University2.49-6.49vs Predicted
-
19Salve Regina University1.38-3.06vs Predicted
-
20University of Wisconsin2.09-6.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.72Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
-
9.79Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
-
9.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
-
10.18Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
-
7.85U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
-
7.36College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
-
9.29Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
-
12.71Eckerd College2.170.0%1st Place
-
10.72Dartmouth College2.620.0%1st Place
-
7.28Yale University3.390.1%1st Place
-
10.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
-
12.65University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
-
13.25Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
-
10.31University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
-
8.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
-
10.81Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
-
10.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
-
11.51Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
-
15.94Salve Regina University1.380.0%1st Place
-
13.42University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Morrell | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Henry Burnes | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Lewis Cooper | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Matt Safford | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Connor Bayless | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Jack DeNatale | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% |
| Noah Simmons | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| Luke Arnone | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Stephen Duncan | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 7.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
| David Eastwood | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Grant Gridley | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% |
| Anthony Root | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 35.5% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.