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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.84+8.65vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.25+5.80vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.75+7.36vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.28+8.34vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+5.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+2.54vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.39+0.49vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.06+0.50vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.62+1.65vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.37-2.68vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.01-2.05vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.78-1.77vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-2.31vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.49-2.70vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94-5.71vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.61-5.22vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.09-3.96vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.93-3.99vs Predicted
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19Eckerd College2.17-6.19vs Predicted
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20Salve Regina University1.38-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.65Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.8U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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10.36Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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12.34University of Rhode Island2.280.0%1st Place
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10.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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8.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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7.49Yale University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.5Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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10.65Dartmouth College2.620.0%1st Place
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7.32College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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8.95Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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10.23Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.780.1%1st Place
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10.69University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
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11.3Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
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9.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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10.78Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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13.04University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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14.01Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.81Eckerd College2.170.0%1st Place
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16.05Salve Regina University1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Burnes | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Connor Bayless | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Matt Safford | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Luke Arnone | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sam Morrell | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Noah Simmons | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Stephen Duncan | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| David Eastwood | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Grant Gridley | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Lewis Cooper | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.6% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 15.6% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 7.8% |
| Anthony Root | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 35.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.