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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.82+7.58vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.59+3.52vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.90+5.22vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.57+5.24vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.42+0.98vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.80+2.42vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.93+0.88vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.71+0.71vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.93-1.19vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+1.46vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.31-0.40vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.16-0.53vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.33-2.81vs Predicted
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14Clemson University2.14-3.18vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-3.81vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.65-2.89vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.12-9.68vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.17-3.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.58Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.52Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.22Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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9.24Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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5.98Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.42University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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7.88Boston College2.930.1%1st Place
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8.71Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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7.81University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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11.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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10.6Northeastern University2.310.0%1st Place
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11.47Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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10.19Roger Williams University2.330.0%1st Place
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10.82Clemson University2.140.0%1st Place
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11.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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13.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.650.0%1st Place
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7.32University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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14.48North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Jack Parkin | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Harden | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Colin Brego | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Alex Fasolo | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Richie Gordon | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 6.4% |
| Kyle Riggs | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Clayton Snyder | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
| John Walton | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| TJ Danilek | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% |
| Alex Abate | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 19.6% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 34.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.