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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+5.23vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.90+6.19vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.12+4.27vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.80+4.39vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.65+7.88vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.16+5.17vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.31+3.44vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.59-2.67vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.93-1.20vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.57-0.35vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+0.36vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.71-2.85vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.93-5.24vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.82-5.91vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13-3.87vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.17-1.30vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.33-6.49vs Predicted
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18Clemson University2.14-7.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.23Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.19Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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7.27University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.39University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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12.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.650.0%1st Place
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11.17Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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10.44Northeastern University2.310.0%1st Place
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5.33Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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7.8Boston College2.930.1%1st Place
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9.65Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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11.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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9.15Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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7.76University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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8.09Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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14.7North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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10.51Roger Williams University2.330.0%1st Place
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10.95Clemson University2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Harden | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Alex Abate | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 16.0% | 16.8% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% |
| Kyle Riggs | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Jack Parkin | 13.6% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Brego | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% |
| Alex Fasolo | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Luke Ingalls | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Richie Gordon | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 36.4% |
| John Walton | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| TJ Danilek | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.