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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+10.37vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+9.41vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.16+8.33vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.93+3.80vs Predicted
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5Clemson University2.14+6.02vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.57+3.35vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.82+1.37vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.12-0.92vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.80-0.60vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.33+0.65vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.42-4.85vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.93-3.81vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.59-7.73vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.65-1.22vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.31-4.65vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.90-7.88vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.71-8.11vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.17-3.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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11.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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11.33Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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7.8Boston College2.930.1%1st Place
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11.02Clemson University2.140.0%1st Place
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9.35Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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8.37Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.08University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.4University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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10.65Roger Williams University2.330.0%1st Place
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6.15Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.19University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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5.27Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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12.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.650.0%1st Place
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10.35Northeastern University2.310.0%1st Place
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8.12Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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8.89Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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14.47North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% |
| Richie Gordon | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% |
| Colin Brego | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| TJ Danilek | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Harden | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| John Walton | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack Parkin | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Abate | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| Kyle Riggs | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Alex Fasolo | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 35.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.