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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.43+4.00vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.47+6.53vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.83+4.01vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.44+4.28vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.50+3.09vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.36+2.72vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.45+1.39vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+2.92vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.50-0.92vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.36-1.05vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.65-3.32vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.30+1.04vs Predicted
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13Clemson University1.36-0.65vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.02-4.25vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.03-5.02vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.11-2.52vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.07-10.83vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University-0.35-1.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.0Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.53Boston College2.470.0%1st Place
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7.01Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.440.1%1st Place
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8.09Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.72University of Rhode Island2.360.1%1st Place
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8.39Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.08Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.95Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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7.68Roger Williams University2.650.1%1st Place
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13.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.300.0%1st Place
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12.35Clemson University1.360.0%1st Place
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9.75Boston University2.020.0%1st Place
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9.98University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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13.48University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.17Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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16.58North Carolina State University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Nicolosi | 14.5% | 15.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Rasmussen | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Olmsted | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Tucker Weed | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Colantuono | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Luke Welker | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 2.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Ian Moran | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Meredith Julian | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 20.4% | 8.3% |
| Robert Gruskos | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 5.2% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 20.1% | 11.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 12.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victoria Newberry | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 67.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.