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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Stony Brook1.41+5.78vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.86vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.20+1.73vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.43+0.25vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.44+1.92vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35-1.60vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.00+1.06vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+0.81vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology0.72-0.13vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.91-1.55vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.80-2.31vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.06-3.86vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-1.14+0.05vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-2.32vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-2.36-0.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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2.86SUNY Maritime College3.060.3%1st Place
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4.73Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.25Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.92SUNY Maritime College1.440.1%1st Place
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4.4Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.06Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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8.87Stevens Institute of Technology0.720.0%1st Place
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8.45Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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8.69Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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8.14Webb Institute1.060.0%1st Place
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13.05Columbia University-1.140.0%1st Place
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11.68Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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14.31Rochester Institute of Technology-2.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McCauley | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 30.1% | 22.8% | 17.0% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 11.5% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 15.0% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 12.1% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Townsend Morey | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Owen Ward | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| William Sunkler | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Emily Ringrose | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 14.1% | 42.8% | 21.1% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 28.3% | 22.3% | 5.5% |
| Ethan Hall1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 17.2% | 70.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.